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SHORT COMMUNICATION Table of Contents   
Year : 2021  |  Volume : 46  |  Issue : 3  |  Page : 515-519
Merits and demerits of selective isolation of superspreaders: A mathematical modeling study based upon West Bengal (India) SARS-COV 2 data


1 Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
2 Director, ICMR-National Institute of Occupational Health, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
3 Department of Internal Medicine, Woodlands Multispeciality Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Correspondence Address:
Dr. Biswajit Ghoshdastidar
8/5, Alipore Road, Kolkata - 700 027, West Bengal
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/ijcm.IJCM_817_20

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Context: All COVID cases and their contacts are considered highly infectious requiring isolation, which blocks the COVID isolation beds and disrupts life in the community. Aim: To find out the effect of selective isolation and contact tracing of superspreaders as compared with the conventional ongoing protocol. Settings and Design: A mathematical model was designed to look at the effect of isolation and contact tracing of only those with high viral loads (superspreaders) on COVID-19 bed occupancy and overall mortality, in comparison with conventional protocol of isolation and contact tracing of all cases. Materials and Methods: An agent-based model, calibrated to the ongoing West Bengal COVID-19 data, was run for a total of 178 days to find out the effect of the interventions on COVID-19 bed occupancy and mortality. Results: There is an impressive reduction in the occupancy of COVID isolation beds, even with the preintervention testing rate with no negative impact on mortality. Conclusions: Strict isolation of superspreaders only, maybe highly effective in reducing the burden on health care and solving the COVID isolation bed crises if the testing rate is significantly increased.


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